HL Bowl Watch, Week 2

By at November 8, 2009 | 3:59 PM | Print


At Husker Locker, we try to let the bowl picture shake out a bit before we start handing out any predictions on the issues for Nebraska. Now that we've traversed eight games, we begin our weekly Bowl Watch.

Ready? Ready!

Now, remember – when reading through this, please remember two key things that most national pundits almost never do:

1. After the BCS, the slots are merely a guide. The No. 3 Big 12 team doesn't really have to go to the Holiday Bowl, for example. It'll be a cold day in hell before you ever see Florida or Georgia in the Cotton Bowl ever again, as another example. The slots are really meaningless. The bowls try to create games they think people will attend in person and often, the bowls work in concert to make it happen. That's how NU headed to the Gator Bowl last year despite finishing behind Missouri.

2.Teams with the best following get more preferential treatment. This includes Nebraska.

On with the watch, which takes the best game Nebraska could play in – the Fiesta Bowl – and works down to the worst – the Texas Bowl.

BCS Fiesta Bowl
Nebraska must: Win the Big 12 Championship.
Likely opponent: Boise State or TCU
Odds: Very Poor. Colt McCoy isn't Landry Jones.

Cotton Bowl
Nebraska must: Lose to Texas in the Big 12 title game
Likely opponent: Auburn, Arkansas or Tennessee
Odds: Very Poor. Oklahoma State's got this spot.

Holiday Bowl
Nebraska must: Beat OU, win North, lose to UT
Likely opponent: USC, Arizona, Oregon State
Odds: Good. The scenario lines up nicely.

Alamo Bowl
Nebraska Must: Win 8, but lose North to KSU
Likely Opponent: Northwestern
Odds: Fair. We think NU wins the North

Sun Bowl
Nebraska Must: Finish at least 7-5
Likely Opponent: California, Stanford or Arizona
Odds: Poor. We like Texas Tech here. Natural fit.

Insight Bowl
Nebraska Must: Finish at least 6-6
Likely Opponent: Big Ten scrub or at-large.
Odds: Very poor. Big Ten? This year? Blech.

Independence Bowl
Nebraska Must: Finish 6-6
Likely Opponent: Auburn or Georgia
Odds: Poor. We think Nebraska wins at least two more.

Texas Bowl
Nebraska Must: Finish 6-6
Opponent: Navy
Odds: Zero. This spot seems made for Iowa State or Texas A&M.

Our Big 12 bowl projections:

BCS title: Texas vs. Florida
Cotton: Oklahoma State vs. Auburn
Holiday: Nebraska vs. USC
Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Northwestern
Sun Bowl: Texas Tech vs. Arizona
Insight Bowl: Kansas State vs. Michigan State
Independence Bowl: Missouri vs. Georgia
Texas Bowl: Texas A&M vs. Navy

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