Ten poor blokes – players and coaches alike – feeling the heat in the Big 12 as the 2009 season approaches. (The order’s alphabetical, Mizzou fans).

Blaine Gabbert, Missouri QB: Gary Pinkel’s already set the bar at Chase Daniel, ca. 2006. So Gabbert’s gotta play at least that well. Thing is, he could be much better than that.

Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State Coach: He’s got the hair, the new football facility, the TV sound byte, the skill players and a billionaire watching over his program. For now. If OSU lays an egg vs. Georgia that opening weekend, let the sirens in Stillwater wail.

Cody Hawkins, Colorado QB: Is this kid going to start again? Is the Big Mac special sauce really just diluted thousand island dressing? So, on Hawkins’ shoulders goes the follow: A brand new offense, a punchless receiving corps and, frankly, dad’s head coaching job. As Cody goes, so do the Buffaloes. The question now is: Is the kid Jacob or Esau?

Dan Hawkins, Colorado coach: Ten wins. No excuses. Read his lips.

Zac Lee, Nebraska QB: Lee has more physical talent than any Nebraska quarterback since Eric Crouch. Time to strap in, harness it into good decision and, for the love of Herbie, stay healthy.

Colt McCoy, Texas QB: Another season of gunslingin’ in Austin without half of Sam Bradford’s prodigious weapons. McCoy basically has to be the gingerbread man for the third straight year. If you don’t root for this kid, you’re swallowing yard cuttings. And considering head coach Mack Brown sent McCoy to every news outlet in the free world this summer, there is pressure, albeit of a different kind, to live up to all of those appearances, plus his 2008 season.

Taylor Potts, Texas Tech QB: Has to be on the list, although Mike Leach’s track record shows he can plug any old dude in there. But Potts doesn’t want to be the first to falter.

Ryan Reynolds, Oklahoma LB: Since Sooner fans basically chalked up the Texas loss to Reynolds’ injury, his return is supposed to solidify a leaky pass defense, end the war for conflict diamonds, reverse the Santa Ana winds…you get the picture.

Mike Sherman, Texas A&M coach: How many guys take the Callahan method and apply to a tradition-rich program, thereby sending said program to an inexplicably bad season. This guy does.


Daniel Thomas, Kansas State RB/Wildcat QB: The guy’s about as big as Hagrid with Johnny B. Goode’s arm. On top of that, the kid was under the “will he qualify” thunderstorm watch for much of the summer. Much is expected, quickly, of Thomas, an unusual talent who rises out of a Mississippi JUCO like…OK, enough similes.

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In preparation for Big 12 Media Days, Husker Locker will be counting down and breaking down each of the teams in the conference. We hope you view this series as more interesting, comprehensive and definitive than what you may find elsewhere. Where we can make strong takes – we will.

We rank the teams 12 to 1 in overall strength. Then we’ll provide for you the North/South breakdown – and the preseason All Big 12 team, as well.

Enjoy!

Today: No. 10 Colorado

Coach:Dan Hawkins
2008 Record: 5-7

What’s Changed Since 2008: CU lost its offensive coordinator to Oregon, the Buffs switched back to the West Coast Offense, QB Matt Ballenger bolted, WR Josh Smith, the team’s most dynamic player, chose to bolt, too, in order to pursue a rap career (and play football). Hawkins, believing the only place a rap career can flourish, apparently, released Smith only to USC and UCLA. Top-notch running back recruit Darrell Scott lost 30 pounds. Hawkins made a “10 wins and no excuses” guarantee. He’d better have the excuses ready. An old lady left all of her money to CU upon her death. Hawkins went in the hospital for kidney stones.

2009 Non-Conference Schedule: Easier than it has been, but still no cakewalk. The toughest game on paper is a Thursday night trip to West Virginia after a bye date, but a Friday game at Toledo could be tricky, too. CU hosts Colorado State and Wyoming, the latter of which we identified as a potential upset.

2009 Conference Schedule: Tough road games at Texas and Oklahoma State practically bookend the schedule, but CU gets to host Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. That schedule advantage has led some pundits, most notably Phil Steele, to suggest the Buffaloes are headed for an upper division finish.

Offense: West Coast/Spread
Coordinator:Eric Kiseau, another young guy who takes over for the departed Mark Helfrich, who kept CU in the shotgun much of the time, using a modified spread rushing offense. Kiseau is a high-energy guy, but he prefers the control of the West Coast Offense. Kiseau has openly said his offense will resemble that of California, where he coached under Jeff Tedford.

Strength: Running backs. Colorado has three pretty good ones, and two of those three are potential stars. Sophomores Darrell Scott and Rodney Stewart – the first is built like a bowling ball, while the second is a 5-7 scatback - are an effective 1-2 punch, and senior Demetrius Sumler is good around the goal line. The offensive line, while young, has the potential, later in 2009, to be CU’s best in years. Sophomore guards Ryan Miller and Blake Behrens are both all-league candidates over the next two years.

Weakness:There just no way around it: Cody Hawkins has been the worst starting quarterback over the last two years in the Big 12. He gets sacked a lot, his adjusted yards per attempt average is under five – which is anemic, among the nation’s worst – and he throws interceptions. He may be smart. He may be Dan Hawkins’ kid. But he is not a good passer, and there is no indication that the more mobile Tyler Hansen, who is recovering from a broken thumb, is ready to replace him. Hansen looked awful in a 40-31 loss to Nebraska – like he didn’t belong on the field.

Beyond that, CU will have to adjust to a new offense. It’s going to take time, and the front of the Big 12 schedule, which includes games at Texas and vs. Kansas and Missouri, will be a tough test.

Defense: 4-3
Coordinator: Brian Cabral, the longtime CU assistant who has lasted through four different head coaches. It speaks to his personality and his talent of getting a lot out of a little. After going through some rough patches in 2003 and 2004, his defenses have been pretty solid, considering the anemic nature of the CU offense under Hawkins.

Strength: Cabral is a linebackers coach at heart, and he’s always got a pretty good crew. No exception in 2009, as the team’s two leading tacklers, Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart, both return. Jon Major, one of the nation’s recruits in 2008, redshirted last year, and may fill a starting role now. Also look for former NU commit Doug Rippy, a redshirt, to get some playing time. The secondary could be pretty good if two new safeties can support solid corners Cha’pelle Brown and Jimmy Smith.

Weakness:The defensive line was raided by graduation. Gone is George Hypolite, Brandon Nicolas and Maurice Lucas. That’s more than 100 tackles. You don’t just replace that in a few weeks of play, no matter how talented the replacements are. And there’s some evidence that they may not be as talented. Colorado will struggle to generate a pass rush without blitzing.

Special Teams The big weapon in the kickoff and punt return game, Josh Smith, is off working on his flow. Matt DiLallo wasn’t much of a punter for the alititude he kicks in (just a 34.0 net average) and Aric Goodman was positively awful at kicker last year, missing 9 of 14 attempts.

Intangibles: Colorado seems to play Nebraska well since Hawkins arrival – even that awful 2006 team hung with NU for a half - and that may color Huskers’ fans concern for the Buffs. In recent years, however, CU seems utterly flummoxed when playing Missouri. Hawkins is an emotional leader, and his teams tend to go into the Big 12 conference with some emotion. Then it hits a brick wall. There’s just a lot of bad voodoo around this joint in general. Hawkins is probably getting fired after this year. Then…expect a full push for Turner Gill.

Best-Case Scenario: It’s not 10 wins, that’s for sure. Maybe eight. CU isn’t going to sweep KU, NU and MU and it’s got no shot on the road at Okie State and Texas.

Worst-Case Scenario: The Buffs drop two before the Big 12, lose to Texas and Kansas, and Hawkins goes on execution watch. Colorado won’t mess around waiting for the Hawk to make it work. His offenses have stunk thus far. And it’s not all Gary Barnett’s fault for leaving the cupboard bare.

Our Take: We just don’t get Phil Steele’s vision here for picking CU No. 2 in the Big 12 North. While the Buffs might have a pretty good running game, it’d better be wondrous to account for a below-average passing game. On defense, Colorado’s small defensive line figures to get shoved around. We see four, five wins, depending on whether Iowa State upsets CU in Ames.

See other Big 12 Breakdowns: No. 12 ISU, No. 11 A&M, No. 10 CU, No. 9 BU, No. 8 KU, No. 7 KSU, No. 6 Texas Tech

Agree? Disagree?Tell us about it.

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No. 1 Texas (6-0 overall, 2-0 in the Big 12, Beat Oklahoma 45-35) The Longhorns are, for now, the league’s most complete team, led by the league’s best-named quarterback Colt McCoy. McCoy made several crucial plays in the win over OU, converting third downs into first downs with his arm and legs. UT’s defense struggles a little against skilled passing attacks, but the Sooners quickly abandoned the running game because it was having little success.


Remember this game, folks. This could be the moment when Texas officially surpasses Oklahoma as the premier program in the Big 12. UT has won 3 of the last 6 meetings and it has been better in bowl games. Stoops has run this league for eight years. His reign might just be over.


No. 2 Oklahoma State (6-0, 2-0 Beat Missouri 28-23) Surprise, surprise – it was the Cowboys’ talented-but-maligned defense, not their offense, that secured the biggest OSU victory in, well, some time. Oklahoma State’s offense is indeed diverse, and running back Kendall Hunter is absolutely the league’s best. But that defense has two or three athletes that Nebraska simply lacks. That’s the difference between Chase Daniel coasting along in Lincoln, and getting flushed and frustrated at home.


No. 3 Oklahoma (5-1, 1-1, Lost to Texas 45-35) The Sooners have their terrible defensive game out of their system. Now it’s time to head to Kansas, where the Jayhawks run a strikingly similar offense and boast a fairly stingy defense. Once again, OU Coach Bob Stoops revealed his relative lack of belief in his own defense to stop an opponent when he tried a fake punt. At some point, one must ask: Why does Oklahoma, with arguably the most talent in college football, consistently have a “meltdown” game year after year?


No. 4 Missouri (5-1, 1-1, Lost to Oklahoma State 28-23) What has to kill the Tigers is that OSU didn’t play near its best game on offense. Nope, Mizzou lost this puppy all on its own, as quarterback Chase Daniel came out cold and forced too many balls in the second half. This game was a monumental choke by Daniel and Missouri’s “unstoppable” offense. But the Tigers aren’t out of it; beat Texas this week (and it is possible) and Mizzou puts itself right back in the national championship conversation.


No. 5 Texas Tech (6-0, 2-0, Beat Nebraska 37-31) Same old Red Raiders, relying on smoke, mirrors and a few whacky West Texas plays to mask over a smallish, undisciplined defense. Tech has a whole fleet of offensive weapons, though. I was especially impressed with slippery running back Baron Batch. Graham Harrell’s not bad, but if you put pressure on him, he’ll screw up.


No. 6 Kansas (5-1, 2-0, Beat Colorado 30-14) KU’s won two games it was supposed to win. Neither were very pretty, but the Jayhawks did begin to find their running game against the Buffs, as junior Jake Sharp went over 100 yards on the ground. Todd Reesing’s still Todd Reesing, which means Kansas is never out of a game. Even against Oklahoma.


No. 7 Baylor (3-3, 1-1, Beat Iowa State 38-10) In truth, Nebraska played well enough to inhabit this spot – until Baylor put a major number on a game Cyclones bunch. ISU probably suffered a letdown after two heartbreaking losses and quarterback Phillip Bates quitting the team, but, still – BU quarterback Robert Griffin is ahead of the breakneck pace Vince Young set a few years ago. And Griffin is in the right offense. Baylor has a real shot at a bowl game.


No. 8 Nebraska (3-3, 0-2, Lost to Texas Tech 37-31) The Huskers flashed some of the potential we thought they had, but they couldn’t close the crucial deal in Lubbock. NU should win by 10 or more in Ames next week – emphasis on should.


No. 9 Kansas State (4-2, 1-1, Beat Texas A&M 44-30) KSU gave up another 500 yards to an opposing offense, but the pathetic A&M has no defense of its own. Kansas State’s not winning another game in the Big 12 with that kind of defense.


No. 10 Colorado (3-3, 0-2, Lost to Kansas 30-14) I’ve soured on this team. CU only mounts two or three good drives a game, and the Buffs are handicapped by the coach’s son, quarterback Cody Hawkins, who isn’t mobile enough to run the shotgun spread offense. The Buffs play fair defense, but rarely for four quarters.


No. 11 Iowa State (2-4, 0-2, Lost to Baylor 38-10) ISU took a step back in Waco, and have to regroup quickly for a desperate, newly confident Nebraska team.


No. 12 Texas A&M (2-4, 0-2, Lost to Kansas State 44-30) Knock knock. Who’s there? Fire. Fire who? Fire Mike Sherman.

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