Ten poor blokes – players and coaches alike – feeling the heat in the Big 12 as the 2009 season approaches. (The order’s alphabetical, Mizzou fans).

Blaine Gabbert, Missouri QB: Gary Pinkel’s already set the bar at Chase Daniel, ca. 2006. So Gabbert’s gotta play at least that well. Thing is, he could be much better than that.

Mike Gundy, Oklahoma State Coach: He’s got the hair, the new football facility, the TV sound byte, the skill players and a billionaire watching over his program. For now. If OSU lays an egg vs. Georgia that opening weekend, let the sirens in Stillwater wail.

Cody Hawkins, Colorado QB: Is this kid going to start again? Is the Big Mac special sauce really just diluted thousand island dressing? So, on Hawkins’ shoulders goes the follow: A brand new offense, a punchless receiving corps and, frankly, dad’s head coaching job. As Cody goes, so do the Buffaloes. The question now is: Is the kid Jacob or Esau?

Dan Hawkins, Colorado coach: Ten wins. No excuses. Read his lips.

Zac Lee, Nebraska QB: Lee has more physical talent than any Nebraska quarterback since Eric Crouch. Time to strap in, harness it into good decision and, for the love of Herbie, stay healthy.

Colt McCoy, Texas QB: Another season of gunslingin’ in Austin without half of Sam Bradford’s prodigious weapons. McCoy basically has to be the gingerbread man for the third straight year. If you don’t root for this kid, you’re swallowing yard cuttings. And considering head coach Mack Brown sent McCoy to every news outlet in the free world this summer, there is pressure, albeit of a different kind, to live up to all of those appearances, plus his 2008 season.

Taylor Potts, Texas Tech QB: Has to be on the list, although Mike Leach’s track record shows he can plug any old dude in there. But Potts doesn’t want to be the first to falter.

Ryan Reynolds, Oklahoma LB: Since Sooner fans basically chalked up the Texas loss to Reynolds’ injury, his return is supposed to solidify a leaky pass defense, end the war for conflict diamonds, reverse the Santa Ana winds…you get the picture.

Mike Sherman, Texas A&M coach: How many guys take the Callahan method and apply to a tradition-rich program, thereby sending said program to an inexplicably bad season. This guy does.


Daniel Thomas, Kansas State RB/Wildcat QB: The guy’s about as big as Hagrid with Johnny B. Goode’s arm. On top of that, the kid was under the “will he qualify” thunderstorm watch for much of the summer. Much is expected, quickly, of Thomas, an unusual talent who rises out of a Mississippi JUCO like…OK, enough similes.

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In preparation for Big 12 Media Days, Husker Locker will be counting down and breaking down each of the teams in the conference. We hope you view this series as more interesting, comprehensive and definitive than what you may find elsewhere. Where we can make strong takes – we will.

We rank the teams 12 to 1 in overall strength. Then we’ll provide for you the North/South breakdown – and the preseason All Big 12 team, as well.

Enjoy!

Today: No. 10 Colorado

Coach:Dan Hawkins
2008 Record: 5-7

What’s Changed Since 2008: CU lost its offensive coordinator to Oregon, the Buffs switched back to the West Coast Offense, QB Matt Ballenger bolted, WR Josh Smith, the team’s most dynamic player, chose to bolt, too, in order to pursue a rap career (and play football). Hawkins, believing the only place a rap career can flourish, apparently, released Smith only to USC and UCLA. Top-notch running back recruit Darrell Scott lost 30 pounds. Hawkins made a “10 wins and no excuses” guarantee. He’d better have the excuses ready. An old lady left all of her money to CU upon her death. Hawkins went in the hospital for kidney stones.

2009 Non-Conference Schedule: Easier than it has been, but still no cakewalk. The toughest game on paper is a Thursday night trip to West Virginia after a bye date, but a Friday game at Toledo could be tricky, too. CU hosts Colorado State and Wyoming, the latter of which we identified as a potential upset.

2009 Conference Schedule: Tough road games at Texas and Oklahoma State practically bookend the schedule, but CU gets to host Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. That schedule advantage has led some pundits, most notably Phil Steele, to suggest the Buffaloes are headed for an upper division finish.

Offense: West Coast/Spread
Coordinator:Eric Kiseau, another young guy who takes over for the departed Mark Helfrich, who kept CU in the shotgun much of the time, using a modified spread rushing offense. Kiseau is a high-energy guy, but he prefers the control of the West Coast Offense. Kiseau has openly said his offense will resemble that of California, where he coached under Jeff Tedford.

Strength: Running backs. Colorado has three pretty good ones, and two of those three are potential stars. Sophomores Darrell Scott and Rodney Stewart – the first is built like a bowling ball, while the second is a 5-7 scatback - are an effective 1-2 punch, and senior Demetrius Sumler is good around the goal line. The offensive line, while young, has the potential, later in 2009, to be CU’s best in years. Sophomore guards Ryan Miller and Blake Behrens are both all-league candidates over the next two years.

Weakness:There just no way around it: Cody Hawkins has been the worst starting quarterback over the last two years in the Big 12. He gets sacked a lot, his adjusted yards per attempt average is under five – which is anemic, among the nation’s worst – and he throws interceptions. He may be smart. He may be Dan Hawkins’ kid. But he is not a good passer, and there is no indication that the more mobile Tyler Hansen, who is recovering from a broken thumb, is ready to replace him. Hansen looked awful in a 40-31 loss to Nebraska – like he didn’t belong on the field.

Beyond that, CU will have to adjust to a new offense. It’s going to take time, and the front of the Big 12 schedule, which includes games at Texas and vs. Kansas and Missouri, will be a tough test.

Defense: 4-3
Coordinator: Brian Cabral, the longtime CU assistant who has lasted through four different head coaches. It speaks to his personality and his talent of getting a lot out of a little. After going through some rough patches in 2003 and 2004, his defenses have been pretty solid, considering the anemic nature of the CU offense under Hawkins.

Strength: Cabral is a linebackers coach at heart, and he’s always got a pretty good crew. No exception in 2009, as the team’s two leading tacklers, Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart, both return. Jon Major, one of the nation’s recruits in 2008, redshirted last year, and may fill a starting role now. Also look for former NU commit Doug Rippy, a redshirt, to get some playing time. The secondary could be pretty good if two new safeties can support solid corners Cha’pelle Brown and Jimmy Smith.

Weakness:The defensive line was raided by graduation. Gone is George Hypolite, Brandon Nicolas and Maurice Lucas. That’s more than 100 tackles. You don’t just replace that in a few weeks of play, no matter how talented the replacements are. And there’s some evidence that they may not be as talented. Colorado will struggle to generate a pass rush without blitzing.

Special Teams The big weapon in the kickoff and punt return game, Josh Smith, is off working on his flow. Matt DiLallo wasn’t much of a punter for the alititude he kicks in (just a 34.0 net average) and Aric Goodman was positively awful at kicker last year, missing 9 of 14 attempts.

Intangibles: Colorado seems to play Nebraska well since Hawkins arrival – even that awful 2006 team hung with NU for a half - and that may color Huskers’ fans concern for the Buffs. In recent years, however, CU seems utterly flummoxed when playing Missouri. Hawkins is an emotional leader, and his teams tend to go into the Big 12 conference with some emotion. Then it hits a brick wall. There’s just a lot of bad voodoo around this joint in general. Hawkins is probably getting fired after this year. Then…expect a full push for Turner Gill.

Best-Case Scenario: It’s not 10 wins, that’s for sure. Maybe eight. CU isn’t going to sweep KU, NU and MU and it’s got no shot on the road at Okie State and Texas.

Worst-Case Scenario: The Buffs drop two before the Big 12, lose to Texas and Kansas, and Hawkins goes on execution watch. Colorado won’t mess around waiting for the Hawk to make it work. His offenses have stunk thus far. And it’s not all Gary Barnett’s fault for leaving the cupboard bare.

Our Take: We just don’t get Phil Steele’s vision here for picking CU No. 2 in the Big 12 North. While the Buffs might have a pretty good running game, it’d better be wondrous to account for a below-average passing game. On defense, Colorado’s small defensive line figures to get shoved around. We see four, five wins, depending on whether Iowa State upsets CU in Ames.

See other Big 12 Breakdowns: No. 12 ISU, No. 11 A&M, No. 10 CU, No. 9 BU, No. 8 KU, No. 7 KSU, No. 6 Texas Tech

Agree? Disagree?Tell us about it.

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Periodically throughout the summer, we'll be offering some insights on the national college football scene, both through our burning questions, and through top and bottom five lists.

See the entire archive here.

Today: Five Known Coaches on the Hot Seat

Steve Spurrier, South Carolina: We’ve already chronicled the Ol Ball Coach’s team as one of those ready to take a tumble, and we think Spurrier’s ripe for a year-round stint on the golf course, too.

Speaking of golf, imagine the SEC as the lounge of a semi-swank country club. These are football coaches, after all. Their tastes aren’t that refined.

See that guy in the Tiger Woods gear, with the shades perched on his gelled tips, gritting his teeth over the two bogeys he made during his scratch round? That’s Urban Meyer. The guy in the corner, bleating loudly into his cell phone? Lane Kiffin. The guy hitting on the cart girl as she reloads beer? Houston Nutt. The guy at the snack counter debating whether he should splurge for the frozen Snickers? Mark Richt. The guy getting the biggest laughs in the room, half in the bag and ready to play nine more? Les Miles. The small, Napoleonic club pro who’s straightening the sleeves of Titlelists in the next room? Nick Saban.

Steve Spurrier is the guy over by the TV, dressed in a four-year-old Antigua polo with the three-quarter sleeves and pleated slacks, hair stuck to his forehead by sweat, thumbing through year-old Golf Digests trying to “Reclaim Your Putting Stroke!”

His humor isn’t funny anymore. His offense is no longer on the cutting edge. And, most importantly, he doesn’t coach Florida anymore. The SEC is now either a younger man’s game, that of a borderline pigskin sociopath like Saban or whatever they do at Kentucky and Vandy. Spurrier is none of those things. Either he heads for the Pac 10, or he flings that visor into the sunset.

Dennis Erickson, Arizona State: Boy, the Sun Devils sure were smart to run Bruce Snyder out of town, huh? Erickson’s not an awful coach, per se; we just wonder if he’s been so many places and coached so many teams that he can really be invested in the long-term success of ASU. His teams, talented enough, don’t play like it.

Bobby Bowden, Florida State: It’s a little sad what’s happened to this kind, funny coach. He could have walked away so many times. Why’d he stay in the game, fielding mediocre teams full of miscreants and cheaters? Bowden hasn’t had a decent quarterback in nearly a decade – FSU QBs haven’t completed 60 percent of their passes in a season for the last eight years – his offensive lines have been abysmal, his receivers lightning rods for the wasted talent bug.

Dan Hawkins, Colorado: The “Hawk” hasn’t turned a buck in Boulder, and he’s been saddled with the decision of recruiting his own son, Cody Hawkins, to play the team’s quarterback. Now, let’s be clear: Cody Hawkins isn’t a bad quarterback. He’s not a charity case. This isn’t nepotism. But he can only take this team so far, and it should not be a coincidence that CU has struggled to land a top-flight QB in Daddy Hawkins’ tenure at CU.

As long as Cody Hawkins is the QB, Colorado doesn’t win 10 games. The Buffs may not win six this year. And, if Dan Hawkins really means “no excuses,” it’ll be time for the CU administration to flush.

Mike Sherman, Texas A&M: Absolutely not kidding with this one. While we expect the Aggies to get off to a 3-0 start, we don’t expect them to win more than two games from that point forward. And if A&M loses to Iowa State and finishes on a 7/8-game losing streak, you’ll see Bill Byrne, who is typically reluctant, pulling the trigger. It’s not like he’s Mr. Popular down in College Station at this very moment. And if A&M were to lose to, say UAB? Immediate execution watch. The Aggie faithful won’t put up with it. And there are plenty of good candidates right in the Big 12 (ahem, Shawn Watson?) from which to choose.

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Today we continue with part two of our Big 12 coaches “toughest jobs” list. We’ve already covered what we consider to be the easier jobs. Now we flip the switch and come at from the more difficult end.

Again, the criteria:

Recruiting Base/Interest
Administrative/Booster Support
Media/Fan Expectation
Chance of “Success,” defined in part by the school’s tradition
An “X” factor unique to each program, which may be positive or negative.

On with the list!

No. 6 OKLAHOMA STATE

Head Coach: Mike Gundy Compensation: $2.2 Million

Recruiting Base: Oklahoma State combs over much of the same turf as Oklahoma and Texas, but can’t land many of the best players in the area. OSU tends to locate some of their best players, like running back Kendall Hunter, where OU and UT weren’t looking. Still, a ton of rough diamonds in the Pokes’ neck of the woods. And OSU is gaining momentum.

Administrative/Booster Support: Gundy has the money and watchful eye of T. Boone Pickens, who has flooded OSU with enough donor dollars to attract a top-flight coaching staff and vastly improve facilities. With that money comes expectations, though, and if OSU can’t get over the hump vs. Oklahoma soon, times may be a-changin in Stillwater.

Media/Fan Expectation: OU casts a large shadow over OSU, but the expectations, given the money and the coaching staff, are higher than they’ve ever been. The Cowboys are akin to Jay Gatsby – nouveau riche. Now they have to move into East Egg, if you will.

Chance of “Success”: It’s not easy to play Texas, Oklahoma and Texas Tech every year. That said, all the money, support and momentum is there. Nine wins is a reasonable, achievable standard each year. So is a win over Georgia to open the 2009 season.

“X” Factor: Gundy draws attention to himself, whether it’s with his “I’m a Man!” speech, his hair, or his penchant for completely ignoring his team while the defense is on the field so he can draw up plays. Right now, it’s working for him. One day, it might not.

No. 5 MISSOURI

Head coach: Gary Pinkel Compensation: $2.5 million

Recruiting Base: Better than any team in the Big 12 North, frankly. Mizzou can draw from the Kansas City and St. Louis metro areas. The rest of the Show-Me state isn’t bad, either. The Tigers also have good ties with one of the best programs in Texas, Southlake Carroll, because they took a chance on Chase Daniel when others wouldn’t.

Booster/Administrative Support: Since Pinkel underwent a conversion, of sorts, after the death of a player four years ago - and Mizzou gutted its administration in the wake of a real mess with the basketball program – life in Columbia has been a lot better. But the fans remain a little tepid and, after losing his offensive coordinator, Daniel, Chase Coffman and Jeremy Maclin, people want to see just how much magic Pinkel has.

Fan/Media Expectation: Pinkel is on better terms with the media in the last three years, but, again, there is a sense that 2009 is a litmus test. We’ll see how he handles it. Four/five years ago, the atmosphere around Mizzou was fairly toxic and Pinkel was rumored on his way out. These days, Missouri is expected to win nine and beat Kansas. Might be a tall order.

Chance of “Success”: This remains a tough job. Missouri didn’t quite take advantage of its opportunities over the last two years, and it may affect how fans view Pinkel if things turn south in 2009.

“X” Factor: Mizzou’s spread, no-huddle offense takes just the right quarterback.

No. 4 NEBRASKA

Head Coach: Bo Pelini Compensation: $1.851 million

Recruiting Base: We can wax poetic all we want about the NU walk-on program, but the fact is, Nebraska often gets two-thirds of its starters from other states. In some years, it’s more than that. And while NU used to own the surrounding states, particularly Missouri, that’s just not the case anymore. Pelini and Co. have to work much harder and smarter than just about every other staff in the Big 12. Even Iowa State and Colorado are closer to population centers with football talent.

Booster/Administrative Support: Nebraska arguably has the best facilities in the Big 12, and Pelini has a mentor and friend in athletic director Tom Osborne. The NU fan base is so grateful to be rid of Bill Callahan that Pelini will be given the time and latitude he thinks he needs to build a consistent 10-game winner.

Fan/Media Expectation: At least nine wins yearly, and preferably ten. Conference titles, BCS games, and the occasional national title. The Big Red Nation has been a little spoiled by Osborne. And Pelini won’t diminish those expectations for a second. Still – he has to live up to them.

Chance of “Success”: It’s still good, mind you, but, as Pelini will learn, recruiting is such a crucial part of keeping up with OU and Texas and staying ahead of KU and Mizzou. Nebraska has all the amenities, great fans, and other perks. But you’ve still got to convince kids to leave home, family and friends. Not always easy.

“X” Factor: The longer Osborne stays, the better this job is for Pelini. He’s the ultimate coach’s ally.

No. 3 COLORADO

Head Coach: Dan Hawkins Compensation: $1.1 million

Recruiting base: Denver and Colorado Springs usually have their share of players, and Utah tends to produce quite a few for its small population but, like Nebraska, CU is spending a lot of its time in other states. Particularly California.

Booster/Administrative Support: Average at best. CU football is more of a pastime in Boulder, not a passion. Gary Barnett’s been gone for nearly four years, but what happened under his watch won’t ever be forgotten. Hawkins struggles to rile up a fan base that mostly cares about beating Nebraska and Colorado State every year.

Fan/Media Expectation: Let’s put it this way: They think Hawkins is a little nutty for suggesting 10 wins in possible. It’s an apathetic place, Boulder, to traditional sports. The basketball team couldn’t buy a fanbase.

Chance of “Success”: Getting slimmer. CU may always hang around that 6/7 win mark, but becoming a consistent contender? It may never happen again. The Buffs had to take too many risks on California kids just to get to that point, and you wonder whether the administration or campus would ever allow that again.

“X” Factor: Boulder is really appealing to some. Just strange to others.

No. 2 IOWA STATE

Head Coach: Paul Rhoads Compensation: $1.15 million

Recruiting Base: Worse than Nebraska’s in a lot of ways, because most of the best players in Iowa head out of state or play for the Hawkeyes.

Administrative/Booster Support: ISU has a small, loyal, and wounded base of fans who clearly felt betrayed by the departure of Gene Chizik. Athletic director Jamie Pollard has a vision, and it isn’t working out too well for football or men’s basketball. Some people rightly question whether firing Dan McCarney was a useful, smart thing to do.

Fan/Media Expectation: What McCarney was doing clearly wasn’t enough, and Iowa State has no real tradition upon which to fall back. The expectations are too high given the history. They just are. It’ll take several years, and maybe another uniform/helmet change, for the ship to right itself. May we suggest the yellow helmets again?

Chance of “Success”: Not real high. ISU has the odds and momentum stacked against it. We wish Rhoads well.

“X” Factor: Ames is a tough place to recruit to.

No. 1 BAYLOR

Head Coach: Art Briles Compensation: $1.8 million

Recruiting Base: Baylor’s base is made smaller by its academic standards and by its location in Waco. The Bears are situated in Texas but usually have to pick after Texas, A&M, OU, OSU, Tech, TCU, Houston, LSU, NU, Kansas and a few other schools.

Booster/Administrative Support: Have you seen the stands at a Baylor home game lately? The money is there. The passion is not.

Fan/Media Expectation: The expectation is that Baylor, a small private school, will somehow legitimately compete against the giants of the Big 12 South. That happens in basketball. Rarely does it occur in football.

Chance of “Success”: Art Briles really did a terrific job in 2008, and his team still couldn’t muster a winning record. His job, right now, is about as tough as Bill Snyder’s job was in the 1989. Since Big 12 inception, BU has never beaten Texas or Oklahoma. It’s not about to happen, either.

“X” Factor: Briles is a darn good coach who wants to turn Baylor around, and has some high school connections he can rely upon for recruiting.

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