In preparation for Big 12 Media Days, Husker Locker will be counting down and breaking down each of the teams in the conference. We hope you view this series as more interesting, comprehensive and definitive than what you may find elsewhere. Where we can make strong takes – we will.

We rank the teams 12 to 1 in overall strength. Then we’ll provide for you the North/South breakdown – and the preseason All Big 12 team, as well.

Enjoy!

Today: No. 10 Colorado

Coach:Dan Hawkins
2008 Record: 5-7

What’s Changed Since 2008: CU lost its offensive coordinator to Oregon, the Buffs switched back to the West Coast Offense, QB Matt Ballenger bolted, WR Josh Smith, the team’s most dynamic player, chose to bolt, too, in order to pursue a rap career (and play football). Hawkins, believing the only place a rap career can flourish, apparently, released Smith only to USC and UCLA. Top-notch running back recruit Darrell Scott lost 30 pounds. Hawkins made a “10 wins and no excuses” guarantee. He’d better have the excuses ready. An old lady left all of her money to CU upon her death. Hawkins went in the hospital for kidney stones.

2009 Non-Conference Schedule: Easier than it has been, but still no cakewalk. The toughest game on paper is a Thursday night trip to West Virginia after a bye date, but a Friday game at Toledo could be tricky, too. CU hosts Colorado State and Wyoming, the latter of which we identified as a potential upset.

2009 Conference Schedule: Tough road games at Texas and Oklahoma State practically bookend the schedule, but CU gets to host Kansas, Missouri and Nebraska. That schedule advantage has led some pundits, most notably Phil Steele, to suggest the Buffaloes are headed for an upper division finish.

Offense: West Coast/Spread
Coordinator:Eric Kiseau, another young guy who takes over for the departed Mark Helfrich, who kept CU in the shotgun much of the time, using a modified spread rushing offense. Kiseau is a high-energy guy, but he prefers the control of the West Coast Offense. Kiseau has openly said his offense will resemble that of California, where he coached under Jeff Tedford.

Strength: Running backs. Colorado has three pretty good ones, and two of those three are potential stars. Sophomores Darrell Scott and Rodney Stewart – the first is built like a bowling ball, while the second is a 5-7 scatback - are an effective 1-2 punch, and senior Demetrius Sumler is good around the goal line. The offensive line, while young, has the potential, later in 2009, to be CU’s best in years. Sophomore guards Ryan Miller and Blake Behrens are both all-league candidates over the next two years.

Weakness:There just no way around it: Cody Hawkins has been the worst starting quarterback over the last two years in the Big 12. He gets sacked a lot, his adjusted yards per attempt average is under five – which is anemic, among the nation’s worst – and he throws interceptions. He may be smart. He may be Dan Hawkins’ kid. But he is not a good passer, and there is no indication that the more mobile Tyler Hansen, who is recovering from a broken thumb, is ready to replace him. Hansen looked awful in a 40-31 loss to Nebraska – like he didn’t belong on the field.

Beyond that, CU will have to adjust to a new offense. It’s going to take time, and the front of the Big 12 schedule, which includes games at Texas and vs. Kansas and Missouri, will be a tough test.

Defense: 4-3
Coordinator: Brian Cabral, the longtime CU assistant who has lasted through four different head coaches. It speaks to his personality and his talent of getting a lot out of a little. After going through some rough patches in 2003 and 2004, his defenses have been pretty solid, considering the anemic nature of the CU offense under Hawkins.

Strength: Cabral is a linebackers coach at heart, and he’s always got a pretty good crew. No exception in 2009, as the team’s two leading tacklers, Shaun Mohler and Jeff Smart, both return. Jon Major, one of the nation’s recruits in 2008, redshirted last year, and may fill a starting role now. Also look for former NU commit Doug Rippy, a redshirt, to get some playing time. The secondary could be pretty good if two new safeties can support solid corners Cha’pelle Brown and Jimmy Smith.

Weakness:The defensive line was raided by graduation. Gone is George Hypolite, Brandon Nicolas and Maurice Lucas. That’s more than 100 tackles. You don’t just replace that in a few weeks of play, no matter how talented the replacements are. And there’s some evidence that they may not be as talented. Colorado will struggle to generate a pass rush without blitzing.

Special Teams The big weapon in the kickoff and punt return game, Josh Smith, is off working on his flow. Matt DiLallo wasn’t much of a punter for the alititude he kicks in (just a 34.0 net average) and Aric Goodman was positively awful at kicker last year, missing 9 of 14 attempts.

Intangibles: Colorado seems to play Nebraska well since Hawkins arrival – even that awful 2006 team hung with NU for a half - and that may color Huskers’ fans concern for the Buffs. In recent years, however, CU seems utterly flummoxed when playing Missouri. Hawkins is an emotional leader, and his teams tend to go into the Big 12 conference with some emotion. Then it hits a brick wall. There’s just a lot of bad voodoo around this joint in general. Hawkins is probably getting fired after this year. Then…expect a full push for Turner Gill.

Best-Case Scenario: It’s not 10 wins, that’s for sure. Maybe eight. CU isn’t going to sweep KU, NU and MU and it’s got no shot on the road at Okie State and Texas.

Worst-Case Scenario: The Buffs drop two before the Big 12, lose to Texas and Kansas, and Hawkins goes on execution watch. Colorado won’t mess around waiting for the Hawk to make it work. His offenses have stunk thus far. And it’s not all Gary Barnett’s fault for leaving the cupboard bare.

Our Take: We just don’t get Phil Steele’s vision here for picking CU No. 2 in the Big 12 North. While the Buffs might have a pretty good running game, it’d better be wondrous to account for a below-average passing game. On defense, Colorado’s small defensive line figures to get shoved around. We see four, five wins, depending on whether Iowa State upsets CU in Ames.

See other Big 12 Breakdowns: No. 12 ISU, No. 11 A&M, No. 10 CU, No. 9 BU, No. 8 KU, No. 7 KSU, No. 6 Texas Tech

Agree? Disagree?Tell us about it.

Permanent Link to this Blog Post