Periodically throughout the summer, we'll be offering some insights on the national college football scene, both through our burning questions, and through top and bottom five lists.

See the entire archive here.

Today: Five Known Coaches on the Hot Seat

Steve Spurrier, South Carolina: We’ve already chronicled the Ol Ball Coach’s team as one of those ready to take a tumble, and we think Spurrier’s ripe for a year-round stint on the golf course, too.

Speaking of golf, imagine the SEC as the lounge of a semi-swank country club. These are football coaches, after all. Their tastes aren’t that refined.

See that guy in the Tiger Woods gear, with the shades perched on his gelled tips, gritting his teeth over the two bogeys he made during his scratch round? That’s Urban Meyer. The guy in the corner, bleating loudly into his cell phone? Lane Kiffin. The guy hitting on the cart girl as she reloads beer? Houston Nutt. The guy at the snack counter debating whether he should splurge for the frozen Snickers? Mark Richt. The guy getting the biggest laughs in the room, half in the bag and ready to play nine more? Les Miles. The small, Napoleonic club pro who’s straightening the sleeves of Titlelists in the next room? Nick Saban.

Steve Spurrier is the guy over by the TV, dressed in a four-year-old Antigua polo with the three-quarter sleeves and pleated slacks, hair stuck to his forehead by sweat, thumbing through year-old Golf Digests trying to “Reclaim Your Putting Stroke!”

His humor isn’t funny anymore. His offense is no longer on the cutting edge. And, most importantly, he doesn’t coach Florida anymore. The SEC is now either a younger man’s game, that of a borderline pigskin sociopath like Saban or whatever they do at Kentucky and Vandy. Spurrier is none of those things. Either he heads for the Pac 10, or he flings that visor into the sunset.

Dennis Erickson, Arizona State: Boy, the Sun Devils sure were smart to run Bruce Snyder out of town, huh? Erickson’s not an awful coach, per se; we just wonder if he’s been so many places and coached so many teams that he can really be invested in the long-term success of ASU. His teams, talented enough, don’t play like it.

Bobby Bowden, Florida State: It’s a little sad what’s happened to this kind, funny coach. He could have walked away so many times. Why’d he stay in the game, fielding mediocre teams full of miscreants and cheaters? Bowden hasn’t had a decent quarterback in nearly a decade – FSU QBs haven’t completed 60 percent of their passes in a season for the last eight years – his offensive lines have been abysmal, his receivers lightning rods for the wasted talent bug.

Dan Hawkins, Colorado: The “Hawk” hasn’t turned a buck in Boulder, and he’s been saddled with the decision of recruiting his own son, Cody Hawkins, to play the team’s quarterback. Now, let’s be clear: Cody Hawkins isn’t a bad quarterback. He’s not a charity case. This isn’t nepotism. But he can only take this team so far, and it should not be a coincidence that CU has struggled to land a top-flight QB in Daddy Hawkins’ tenure at CU.

As long as Cody Hawkins is the QB, Colorado doesn’t win 10 games. The Buffs may not win six this year. And, if Dan Hawkins really means “no excuses,” it’ll be time for the CU administration to flush.

Mike Sherman, Texas A&M: Absolutely not kidding with this one. While we expect the Aggies to get off to a 3-0 start, we don’t expect them to win more than two games from that point forward. And if A&M loses to Iowa State and finishes on a 7/8-game losing streak, you’ll see Bill Byrne, who is typically reluctant, pulling the trigger. It’s not like he’s Mr. Popular down in College Station at this very moment. And if A&M were to lose to, say UAB? Immediate execution watch. The Aggie faithful won’t put up with it. And there are plenty of good candidates right in the Big 12 (ahem, Shawn Watson?) from which to choose.

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Periodically throughout the summer, we'll be offering some insights on the national college football scene, both through our burning questions, and through top and bottom five lists.

See the entire archive here.

Today: Five teams getting a little more love than they deserve heading into the 2009 season:

Penn State: Some pundits are picking the Nittany Lions as a darkhorse national pick, thanks to PSU’s softish non-conference slate (four home games, the toughest vs. Syracuse). But the Big Ten is going to be sneaky competitive this fall, and road games at Michigan, Northwestern and Michigan State won’t be gimmes. Beyond that, Penn State has to replace seven starters on defense – and defense is how Joe Paterno’s crews have got it done over the last five years – and the best receiving trio in Penn State history. Three offensive line starters, too.

Some folks see 11-12 wins out of Penn State. We see eight.

UCLA: The Bruins are just bound to get better, right? Not necessarily. Rick Neuheisel, for all his recruiting gifts, simply doesn’t function well without a good quarterback, and there’s no way of knowing if redshirt freshman Kevin Prince is that guy. Prince sure didn’t light it up in spring ball. The non-conference schedule’s tough enough – at Tennessee and vs. Kansas State are both games we have penciled in as losses – and we think the Pac-10, as a whole, may be stronger even if USC is slightly weaker.

Neuheisel and his staff still have to prove it on the field. They haven’t yet.

Notre Dame: Another team that’s bound to get better, even though 2008 was a washout season with late home losses to so-so Pittsburgh and awful Syracuse. The schedule is tougher – yes, tougher – in 2009. Nevada is a much better team than the San Diego State squad that nearly tripped the Irish. Michigan will be much better. Stanford and Pitt should improve, too. Connecticut replaces Syracuse.

Sure, the Irish have wonderful skill players, especially at receiver. But we remain unsold on Jimmy Clausen and his awkward motion, and while the offensive line returns four starters, it must be said, it hasn’t been a particularly good offensive line in terms of the running game for the last two seasons. The defense, vulnerable to the ground game last year, should be again.

Sorry, folks, but we don’t trust it. One game in Hawaii doesn’t save a coach like one week in Hawaii doesn’t save a marriage.

Cincinnati: Get ready for a major slide in 2009 after Brian Kelly took these guys to the Orange Bowl in 2008. Cincy won several games last year on the strength of its defense and special teams, and the “D” loses 10 of 11 starters. The offense, not bad against the lower-tier of the Big East, couldn’t grind out yards against some of the better teams, and certainly not against Oklahoma and Virginia Tech.

Florida State: Everything’s a mess down in Tallahassee anyhow, with Bobby Bowden’s win total in flux and the university president’s retirement/resignation and the NCAA stuff; you’d think it was 2000 again, and a recount of Bush v. Gore.

Anyway, FSU lost its mind for the 2009 non-conference schedule, dialing up a game at BYU to go along with a road trip to Florida and a home game against South Florida. Did we mention ACC road games at Boston College, Clemson, and North Carolina, with home games vs. upstart NC State, Miami and Georgia Tech?

Trying to manage all that while replacing Graham Gano, the guy who punted and kicked at FSU for the last four years? Yuck. Bowden’s last year – and yes, we think it’s his last – could be a long one.

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Periodically throughout the summer, we'll be offering some insights on the national college football scene, both through our burning questions, and through top and bottom five lists.

You can access the entire archive right here, or by the NCFB tag at the bottom of this blog.

Today: Five sleeper quarterbacks. Y’know, the guys not named Tebow, Bradford, and McCoy.

Russell Wilson, NC State: Short-and-stocky (5-foot-11, 208 pounds) and a bit prone to injury, Wilson nevertheless had a terrific first year for the surprisingly competitive Wolfpack: 1955 yards passing, 388 rushing, 21 total touchdowns, just one interception. And it wasn’t like Wilson had much of an offensive line to protect him, either, but engineered three consecutive upsets – over Wake Forest, Miami and North Carolina – to end the 2008 season. We expect more from him in 2009.

Andrew Luck, Stanford: One of the nation’s top 2008 recruits redshirted last year, and he’ll benefit from one of the nation’s better running games as he gets his feet wet. The early schedule, which includes games vs. Washington State, San Jose State and Washington, is manageable. Luck may take some lumps, but, after throwing for 352 yards and five touchdowns in the spring game, he’s the goods.

Ryan Mallett, Arkansas: He transferred from Michigan after Rich Rod was hired and essentially settled into the spot Mitch Mustain vacated to play third-string at USC. The 6-7 Mallett is a bit of a “groove” thrower, but when he gets hot, and gets good protection, look out. Arkansas returns its top seven receivers from last year and one of the nation’s best tight ends in DJ Williams.

Jordan Jefferson, LSU: Was his brilliance in the Peach Bowl just an aberration, or a sign of things to come? We expect it’s the latter, and considering the Tigers have targets galore and return both starting tackles, we think the offense is set up for Jefferson to thrive. How long he’s able to hold off true freshman Russell Shepard is another question.

Taylor Potts, Texas Tech: Business as usual for signal-callers in Lubbock, especially with a much-improved running game. Potts, barring injury, will drop 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns on opponents.

Permanent Link to this Blog Post

Periodically throughout the summer, we'll be offering some insights on the national college football scene, both through our burning questions, and through top and bottom five lists.

You can access the entire archive right here, or by the NCFB tag at the bottom of this blog.

Today, we consider five teams that will take a step back – and maybe a dramatic one – in 2009.

South Carolina: Steve Spurrier has a date with irrelevancy, and it’s been coming for two years. In 2009, it finally arrives, as the Gamecocks face a brutal schedule. Three out of their four best opponents – Florida, Mississippi, Clemson – are at home, while pick em games vs. Tennessee, NC State and Arkansas are all on the road. Throw in a game at Alabama, and it’s a slate that USC’s uncertain offense just can’t handle. Five wins – maybe. Home games vs. Kentucky and Vanderbilt won’t be gimmes.

As for Spurrier – one has to wonder whether he’s got the patience or the stomach for the turf war the SEC East is about to become. Lane Kiffin resembles a more reckless, younger version of Spurrier. Urban Meyer could win awards for his insolence. The SEC’s revenue-sharing plan has given Vandy and Kentucky a real shot at competing. Georgia is still Georgia. Recruiting down there is a nightmare, and Clemson’s on the way back up now that Tommy Bowden’s out of picture. We suspect a retirement, soon.

Southern California: Blasphemy? Nope – just reality. The Trojans will boast one of the nation’s sturdiest running games, and Aaron Corp/Matt Barkley should capably fill shoes previously worn by Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart, John David Booty and Mark Sanchez.

But the defense, awe-inspiring in 2008, needs a year to retool after losing nine of the top 12 tacklers. We suspect, for the first time in five years, that opposing teams might really gain some traction running the ball on USC. The September-October schedule is really tough – games at Ohio State, California, Notre Dame and Oregon – and we could see a trap set in one of the two final home games vs. UCLA and Arizona. The Trojans could still win 10 games. If not, don’t be surprised.

Utah: No undefeated season this year. The Utes lose quarterback Brian Johnson, their top four receivers and one of the nation’s best punter/kickers Louie Sakoda, who a consensus first-team All American. Throw in games at Oregon and the three best teams in Mountain West – BYU, TCU and UNLV – and you get the picture. A rebuilding job in Salt Lake City.

Wake Forest: The smoke and mirrors are going to run out for Jim Grobe’s crew. The non-conference schedule, with games at Navy and vs. Baylor and Stanford, is sneaky hard, especially for a team that lost all of its starting linebackers. And while the conference schedule seems manageable from afar, we see take Wake taking a hard dive with home games vs. Miami, Florida State and NC State and road games at Clemson and Georgia Tech. Something’s gotta give in the ACC, and this year, it’s the Deacs. Seven losses. Maybe more.

Oklahoma State: We make risky calls sometimes around here, and this is our riskiest. While many predict a breakout season for the Cowboys this year similar to the one Texas Tech (sorta) experienced last year, we go in the opposite direction.

Part of it is a matter of pressure and expectations. At Tech, Mike Leach crafts his teams to his liking, toils away from the state’s major newspapers, and keeps perspective and occasionally gets a pass from the media because of it. Not Mike Gundy, for obvious reasons: The watchful eye of T. Boone Pickens, and, well, this little moment.

The Cowboys also host Georgia to open the season, the most significant season-opener since, oh, whenever. OSU buckled in Athens back in 2007, and its fan base can taste a win here. If the Pokes can’t beat a Dawg team that’s replacing its top quarterback, running back and receiver, well, you can imagine the pressure that goes on the team, and Gundy, after that.

Thirdly, Oklahoma State couldn’t stop the pass in last year, and, with replacing three starters in the secondary, we don’t forsee it this year. Couple that with a front seven that gave up at least 110 yards in nine of 13 games, and you’ve got a defense poised for a major meltdown in 2009. Gundy seems to know as much, which is why he signed up coordinator-for-hire Bill Young to do something – anything – with the defense.

Finally, well, we just don’t trust the HC. Don’t trust a guy so involved in the offense that he turns his back on an awful defense to go draw up plays. Worked like a real peach in the last quarter of the season, when OSU went 1-3 and gave up more than 500 yards per game, didn’t it? We see too many similarities in Stillwater – meddlesome administration, aloof coaching, mercenary, cerebral guys on defense – to what happened at Nebraska in 2007.

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