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2009 Jun 25
National CFB: On These 5 - Don't Drink the Kool-Aid
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Periodically throughout the summer, we'll be offering some insights on the national college football scene, both through our burning questions, and through top and bottom five lists.
See the entire archive here.
Today: Five teams getting a little more love than they deserve heading into the 2009 season:
Penn State: Some pundits are picking the Nittany Lions as a darkhorse national pick, thanks to PSU’s softish non-conference slate (four home games, the toughest vs. Syracuse). But the Big Ten is going to be sneaky competitive this fall, and road games at Michigan, Northwestern and Michigan State won’t be gimmes. Beyond that, Penn State has to replace seven starters on defense – and defense is how Joe Paterno’s crews have got it done over the last five years – and the best receiving trio in Penn State history. Three offensive line starters, too.
Some folks see 11-12 wins out of Penn State. We see eight.
UCLA: The Bruins are just bound to get better, right? Not necessarily. Rick Neuheisel, for all his recruiting gifts, simply doesn’t function well without a good quarterback, and there’s no way of knowing if redshirt freshman Kevin Prince is that guy. Prince sure didn’t light it up in spring ball. The non-conference schedule’s tough enough – at Tennessee and vs. Kansas State are both games we have penciled in as losses – and we think the Pac-10, as a whole, may be stronger even if USC is slightly weaker.
Neuheisel and his staff still have to prove it on the field. They haven’t yet.
Notre Dame: Another team that’s bound to get better, even though 2008 was a washout season with late home losses to so-so Pittsburgh and awful Syracuse. The schedule is tougher – yes, tougher – in 2009. Nevada is a much better team than the San Diego State squad that nearly tripped the Irish. Michigan will be much better. Stanford and Pitt should improve, too. Connecticut replaces Syracuse.
Sure, the Irish have wonderful skill players, especially at receiver. But we remain unsold on Jimmy Clausen and his awkward motion, and while the offensive line returns four starters, it must be said, it hasn’t been a particularly good offensive line in terms of the running game for the last two seasons. The defense, vulnerable to the ground game last year, should be again.
Sorry, folks, but we don’t trust it. One game in Hawaii doesn’t save a coach like one week in Hawaii doesn’t save a marriage.
Cincinnati: Get ready for a major slide in 2009 after Brian Kelly took these guys to the Orange Bowl in 2008. Cincy won several games last year on the strength of its defense and special teams, and the “D” loses 10 of 11 starters. The offense, not bad against the lower-tier of the Big East, couldn’t grind out yards against some of the better teams, and certainly not against Oklahoma and Virginia Tech.
Florida State: Everything’s a mess down in Tallahassee anyhow, with Bobby Bowden’s win total in flux and the university president’s retirement/resignation and the NCAA stuff; you’d think it was 2000 again, and a recount of Bush v. Gore.
Anyway, FSU lost its mind for the 2009 non-conference schedule, dialing up a game at BYU to go along with a road trip to Florida and a home game against South Florida. Did we mention ACC road games at Boston College, Clemson, and North Carolina, with home games vs. upstart NC State, Miami and Georgia Tech?
Trying to manage all that while replacing Graham Gano, the guy who punted and kicked at FSU for the last four years? Yuck. Bowden’s last year – and yes, we think it’s his last – could be a long one.
See the entire archive here.
Today: Five teams getting a little more love than they deserve heading into the 2009 season:
Penn State: Some pundits are picking the Nittany Lions as a darkhorse national pick, thanks to PSU’s softish non-conference slate (four home games, the toughest vs. Syracuse). But the Big Ten is going to be sneaky competitive this fall, and road games at Michigan, Northwestern and Michigan State won’t be gimmes. Beyond that, Penn State has to replace seven starters on defense – and defense is how Joe Paterno’s crews have got it done over the last five years – and the best receiving trio in Penn State history. Three offensive line starters, too.
Some folks see 11-12 wins out of Penn State. We see eight.
UCLA: The Bruins are just bound to get better, right? Not necessarily. Rick Neuheisel, for all his recruiting gifts, simply doesn’t function well without a good quarterback, and there’s no way of knowing if redshirt freshman Kevin Prince is that guy. Prince sure didn’t light it up in spring ball. The non-conference schedule’s tough enough – at Tennessee and vs. Kansas State are both games we have penciled in as losses – and we think the Pac-10, as a whole, may be stronger even if USC is slightly weaker.
Neuheisel and his staff still have to prove it on the field. They haven’t yet.
Notre Dame: Another team that’s bound to get better, even though 2008 was a washout season with late home losses to so-so Pittsburgh and awful Syracuse. The schedule is tougher – yes, tougher – in 2009. Nevada is a much better team than the San Diego State squad that nearly tripped the Irish. Michigan will be much better. Stanford and Pitt should improve, too. Connecticut replaces Syracuse.
Sure, the Irish have wonderful skill players, especially at receiver. But we remain unsold on Jimmy Clausen and his awkward motion, and while the offensive line returns four starters, it must be said, it hasn’t been a particularly good offensive line in terms of the running game for the last two seasons. The defense, vulnerable to the ground game last year, should be again.
Sorry, folks, but we don’t trust it. One game in Hawaii doesn’t save a coach like one week in Hawaii doesn’t save a marriage.
Cincinnati: Get ready for a major slide in 2009 after Brian Kelly took these guys to the Orange Bowl in 2008. Cincy won several games last year on the strength of its defense and special teams, and the “D” loses 10 of 11 starters. The offense, not bad against the lower-tier of the Big East, couldn’t grind out yards against some of the better teams, and certainly not against Oklahoma and Virginia Tech.
Florida State: Everything’s a mess down in Tallahassee anyhow, with Bobby Bowden’s win total in flux and the university president’s retirement/resignation and the NCAA stuff; you’d think it was 2000 again, and a recount of Bush v. Gore.
Anyway, FSU lost its mind for the 2009 non-conference schedule, dialing up a game at BYU to go along with a road trip to Florida and a home game against South Florida. Did we mention ACC road games at Boston College, Clemson, and North Carolina, with home games vs. upstart NC State, Miami and Georgia Tech?
Trying to manage all that while replacing Graham Gano, the guy who punted and kicked at FSU for the last four years? Yuck. Bowden’s last year – and yes, we think it’s his last – could be a long one.
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